Back to the good old days?

Good news: the recession, or at least a continuous contraction in the GDP, seems to be over in many parts of the world, including the UK.

My economic crystal ball was absolutely useless, and I had been overtly pessimistic, because I was expecting things to be rather more tortuous. However, I still believe that things will remain fragile for a few years. Society, politics and economics in 2010 will have changed from what existed in 2007.

Perhaps the danger lies in being too optimistic and see the recent financial and economic problems as blips, and declare the good old days ought to come back.

PS: NIESR has been too optimistic and premature in announcing the end of the recession before. See UK recession │ Is it over?