I am writing this piece at around 9 p.m. on Sunday, 26 May 2019, and I have a feeling that it might not age well, since no European Parliament election results for the UK are available yet. However, I wonder if the timing of Theresa May’s announcement on Friday setting out the timetable for her resignation as Prime Minister was – in part – determined by the internal party assessment of how the vote went on Thursday. By announcing her impending resignation and a prolonged lame-duck period before the European Parliament election results are known, Mrs May may have neturalized – to a very limited extent perhaps – the narrative that is likely to emerge: imagine her intention to resign following a rampant Brexit Party performance, and how the political commentariat would have analysed such event and signposted the subsequent narrative. The domestic UK political focus has seemingly already shifted to the next leader of the Conservatives, thus the likely next PM, rather than the fallout of the European Parliament elections.
On the course of Brexit, I still have no idea what’s going to happen. The UK has managed to kick the can down the road again, and avoided a disorderly no-deal Brexit, but what’s going to happen once October arrives? I have no idea.